Skip to main content

Goblin Game for Nick

Hi Nick!

I did a quick and dirty analysis of Goblin Game for you.  In order to do so I had to make some assumptions. 

1) Neither player knows what the other is likely to bid
2) You both are at 20 to start
3) Your bidding is limited by how many things you can hold in your hand covertly, I assumed 10.

I know #2 isn't super likely, given the converted cost of 7, but I had to start somewhere, and we can discuss how it changes with different starting totals without redoing all of the math. 

So here's a chart of what happens when you bid any given number, and your opponent bids randomly between 1 and 10.  While their bid won't be random, of course, it might as well be as your knowledge of it is none.


Your BidAverage LossOpp Avg LossDiff
110.96.4-4.5
210.17.4-2.7
3108.2-1.8
49.48.9-0.5
59.59.60.1
69.210.31.1
79.410.91.5
89.411.52.1
99.7122.3
101012.52.5

So to get the most bang for your buck, you're going to want to bid high.  Of course, in reality you can also intimate from game clues and context clues and super secret Rounders-level tell reading about what your opponent will bid, and try to bid just above them.  

Here's the same chart in graph form, because graphs!

Now, to address the reality of the situation:

If your life totals are unequal, things get trickier.  A player with less total life risks less by wagering low (because the penalty of losing half is less in absolute terms), but exposes themselves to greater danger because of the relative danger of getting dead from your opponents' tricks.   On the other hand, if you have a lower life total relative to your opponent, you can be locked into the losing bid by an opponent who bids higher than your overall life total.  

In general, as your life decreases, you should bid lower.  For example, a player with 5 life can bid 1 with more impunity than a player at 20.  Usually, bidding 1 is a bad idea, but as your life score gets lower, it becomes less of a bad idea.

One final note, the minimum you (and your opponent) can lose is 2 life.  If your opponent is at 2 and you're at more than 2, just bid 1 and you win!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Cardiology: Double Feature! Branching Fate/One Fate

Decision: Should You Play Branching Fate/One Fate? TL;DR: Do you stride far? Then you should probably be playing Branching Fate.  Other warbands with high dice counts should consider playing Branching as well.  If you can manage to regularly roll 3 magic dice on spell attacks, One Fate is quite good.  Otherwise, pass on it.
Prelude:Double Feature! This week we're taking a look at two different cards for Cardiology; rest assured this departure from standard operating procedure is for good reason.  Namely, the math required to analyze One Fate is very similar to the math required to analyze Branching Fate.  We couldn't see a reason to stretch the same work into two articles, so this week you're getting a two-for-one special.
Factor: Warband In order to score either of the Fate objectives, you've got to be rolling three or more dice on attack or defense.  Rolling three dice on attack is pretty common (defense - less so), but some warbands definitely come naturally better eq…

Cardiology: Hunting Aspect

Decision: Should You Play Hunting Aspect? TL;DR: It really sucks to say this, but probably not.
Factor: The Numbers At first glance, this card is incredible.  Numerically, it's out of this world; no other card gives four characteristic points.  Essentially, Hunting Aspect combines Great Fortitude, Great Strides, and Enchanted Collar into a single card.  Let's take a closer look at what those stat points actually do for us.

To start, Hunting Aspect hits us with +2 move.  Lighaen - the only legal target for Aspect - starts with 5 move, so Aspect will bump him to a truly impressive seven move.  This allows you to move Lighaen from almost anywhere on the board to almost anywhere else.  This point is probably better made with a visual representation.  Let's say your beginning setup looks something like this - with your hunters represented by the blue circles and Lighaen positioned in the back. 


This kind of setup would allow us to play very aggressively with the hunters, all…

Cardiology: Larval Lance

Decision: Should You Play Larval Lance? TL;DR: Mollog should pass.  Rippa's should definitely be playing it.  As for the other bands, most aggro strategies will benefit from packing Larval Lance, especially in larger warbands. 
Factor: The Basics With each new season of Shadespire, it seems that there is destined to be an attack upgrade that stands out among its peers.  Sometimes (as with Shadeglass Dagger), the acclaim is well warranted and the card goes on to become a staple in almost every deck.  Other times (looking at you, Fated Blade), the hype is quite overblown, and the card disappears back into relative obscurity.  Six warbands into Season 3, the Belle of the Ball certainly seems to be Larval Lance.  But will it go on to win Prom Queen?  Or like Fated Blade, will it be consigned to standing near the exit, staring into a cup of unspiked punch, wondering if the cheeto stains on its cheap rented tuxedo are going to affect its deposit?

On first glance, Larval Lance appears to…