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Showing posts from September, 2019

Cardiology: Bull Charge

Decision: Should You Play Bull Charge? TL;DR: Beastmen strong like bull, smart like tractor.  Bull Charge good. Factor: Ties At first glance, getting innate results really throws a monkey wrench into accuracy calculations.  But, as we've discussed in our article on Champions of Sigmar , Innate results on attack rolls really only matter when your attack would have tied without the innate.  And just like the Hammerbois of Dreadfane, the Cattlefolk of Beastgrave only have a few attacks on which Bull Charge will be applicable.  So in reality, the math on Bull Charge is actually pretty simple. Bull Charge 1d 2d 3d 1b 2b 1g AVG 2 Sword (x8) 36% 30% 24% 33% 23% 30% 29.3% 3 Sword (x6) 27% 24% 21% 26% 20% 25% 23.8% AVG 31.5% 26.8% 22.4% 29.4% 21.7% 27.1% Wow!  Those are very strong numbers - creeping close to an Upper Hand level of accuracy.  Let's compare them to Determined Effort: Bull vs Determined 1d 2d 3d 1b 2b 1g AVG 2 Sword (x8) 22% 17% 12% 18% 1

Cardiology: Hunting Aspect

Decision: Should You Play Hunting Aspect? TL;DR: It really sucks to say this, but probably not. Factor: The Numbers At first glance, this card is incredible.  Numerically, it's out of this world; no other card gives four characteristic points.  Essentially, Hunting Aspect combines Great Fortitude, Great Strides, and Enchanted Collar into a single card.  Let's take a closer look at what those stat points actually do for us. To start, Hunting Aspect hits us with +2 move.  Lighaen - the only legal target for Aspect - starts with 5 move, so Aspect will bump him to a truly impressive seven move.  This allows you to move Lighaen from almost anywhere on the board to almost anywhere else.  This point is probably better made with a visual representation.  Let's say your beginning setup looks something like this - with your hunters represented by the blue circles and Lighaen positioned in the back.  This kind of setup would allow us to play very aggressively wi

Goblin Game for Nick

Hi Nick! I did a quick and dirty analysis of Goblin Game for you.  In order to do so I had to make some assumptions.  1) Neither player knows what the other is likely to bid 2) You both are at 20 to start 3) Your bidding is limited by how many things you can hold in your hand covertly, I assumed 10. I know #2 isn't super likely, given the converted cost of 7, but I had to start somewhere, and we can discuss how it changes with different starting totals without redoing all of the math.  So here's a chart of what happens when you bid any given number, and your opponent bids randomly between 1 and 10.  While their bid won't be random, of course, it might as well be as your knowledge of it is none . Your Bid Average Loss Opp Avg Loss Diff 1 10.9 6.4 -4.5 2 10.1 7.4 -2.7 3 10 8.2 -1.8 4 9.4 8.9 -0.5 5 9.5 9.6 0.1 6 9.2 10.3 1.1 7 9.4 10.9 1.5 8 9.4 11.5 2.1 9 9.7 12 2.3 10 10 12.5 2.5 So to get the most bang for your buck, you're going to want to b