Now that Season 1 and Season 2 are complete, we decided to take a numerical look at the various warbands and models available. While we will be drawing some (possibly dubious) conclusions, the main purpose of this page will be to serve as a reference for comparing the available warbands on multiple different axes.
Movement
Let's start by looking at movement. We'll compare each warband's average movement stat first. We'll also look at the minimum and maximum movement score on any model in the warband. Finally, we'll see how many models in the warband have alternative movement abilities on their base hero cards: abilities like the Thorns' ability to move through special hexes, the Warden's ability to move multiple models, or Mollog's ability to ignore a move token. (Please note, we'll be considering uninspired and inspired models separately. For example: The Warden can move his minions on either side, so for SG, we'll list two alternate movement abilities, one for each side of his card. Varclav has 2 alternative movement abilities, but we're counting models, not abilities.)
It would seem that while S1 and S2 warbands have very similar average movements within their warbands, the variance between models is much greater in S2. Additionally, S2 warbands have far more alternative movement abilities, allowing for much more versatility in positioning your models.
Wounds
Next, let's look at the wounds characteristic. More wounds obviously means more survivability, but we can look at what constitutes "more wounds" in a number of ways. First. we'll look at the total wounds a warband has (This number will not be doubled, like many others in this article. If a model has a different number of wounds on its inspired/uninspired sides, we will average them). This represents the total damage you need to do to annhilate an enemy's models. Next, we can look at the average number of wounds on a model within a given warband, indicating how tough it is to eliminate a single model. We'll also look at minimum and maximum model health among each warband. Finally, we'll include the number of models with abilities that remove wounds. This will include both "standard" healing abilities like that on Ylthari, and ressurection abilities like those of Skritch and Vortemis.
Both S1 and S2 warbands have an average maximum wound fighter of 4.25 across their warbands. However, the average minimum wound count and average wound count are both lower in S2. Conversely, the total wound count in an average warband is higher in S2. This is largely due to the higher number of warbands in S2 that contain 5+ models (in which each model has a lower average wound count.). For example, Goblins top the charts in total wounds, but have the lowest average health per model; this means each individual model is relatively easy to kill, but it takes the most damage of any warband to wipe them completely off the table.
Defense
Next, let's examine the defense stat. We will start simple at first, by simply looking at the prevalence of the various starting defense stats in each warband.
A few things stand out here immediately. S2 warbands have a much lower chance of presenting with a 1 die defense than S1 warbands. Additionally, they are drastically more likely to have a 2-dodge defense than S1 warbands. While not reflected in the above chart it is also worth noting that only one of the models in S1 started with 2 defense dice on their uninspired side (a random dangle-rat), while in S2 this has become quite common for leaders and has begun to creep onto non-leaders as well.
Lets look at this data in another way. Defense stats are only good in the context of attacks, so we should look at what the defense stats across the warbands actually mean, ie. how likely is it that a model in your warband will get hit by some common attacks?
In the next chart, we'll look at how likely your models are to be hit by a mediocre (2-sword) attack and a highly accurate (3-hammer) attack. We'll give the data for the worst defense in your warband, the best defense, and a weighted average based on all of the possible base defenses of your warband. Remember: in this case, low numbers are good (we're looking at the chance of getting hit).
Much like the prior stat comparisons, the average chance to get hit by attacks is very similar among the total S1 and S2 warbands. However, there are some significant differences that are worth pointing out. The models with the best defenses in any given S2 warband are much more likely to avoid an attack than the equivalent models in any given S1 warband. This is significant because it means your heavy-hitters are more likely to survive. Additionally, all of the best percentages fall in the S2 warbands: Gitz and Mollog are tied for having the model with the best overall defense. Ylthari's is most likely to avoid a mediocre attack of any warband. Mollog's Mob is most likely to avoid a highly accurate attack (tied with SHC and FS). Conversely, all of the worst overall stats lie in S1, due to the heavy prevalence of 1-die defenses.
Attack Accuracy
Next, we'll examine the attacks available to each warband. As with defenses, we're going to look first at the distribution of the various attack accuracies within each warband. Please note: since the accuracy of a 2-swirly magic attack is the same as that of a 2-hammer attack, we've combined the two.
The addition of S2 warbands really upped the raw number of mediocre (2-sword) and average (2-Hammer) attacks in the game, while not doing a lot to alter the likelihood that you'll encounter any given attack overall (the most drastic increase being 2-sword attacks). Additionally, the last warband released in S2 did introduce the game's first 4-sword base attack.
Now let's look at how likely your best, worst, and average fighter are to land a hit on some common defenses: 1-dodge and 2-shield. Remember we're back to high numbers being good for these charts.
S1 and S2 armies stack up pretty evenly here, with perhaps a slight advantage given to S1 armies thanks to the relative lack of Narvias and Turoshes. As mentioned above, the proliferation of 2-sword attacks in S2 makes the average S2 warband a little less accurate than those in S1.
Attack Damage
Just how much damage do the various warbands do when they do manage to hit with an attack?
Before we set the decimal correctly on this chart, every warband but one had the same average attack damage: 2. While the small variations do make a difference, it's worth noting that the S2 warbands have many more attacks than the S1 warbands. While this can partially be accounted for in the higher number of models, this variance is also partially owed to the fact that far more models in S2 have multiple attacks than those in S1. The proliferation of multiple attacks on models (along with the large number of Narvia/Turosh level scrub-models) in S2 also helps to explain their slightly lower average damage. No one would dare to call Mollog's Mob a low damage warband, but it's average attack damage suffers from the inclusion of Mollog's 3 pets in the warband.
Nonetheless, it's worth noting that S1 warbands do have a slightly higher damage per attack output.
Attack Miscellany
This part of the analysis will attempt to track how many models have some of the more common attack enhancements. The following chart will list out which models in each warband have these common abilities: Cleave, Knockback, Crit Effects (including Cleave on Crit, Knockback on Crit, and Extra Damage on Crit), Multiple Targets, and Die Rerolls. While this doesn't cover every possible attack effect, it should give us an idea of which warbands' attack effectiveness isn't wholly portrayed by the accuracy and damage numbers above.
There's not a lot of meat on this particular chart, but we are including it here as a reference. One thing does stand out: Cleave and Multiple Target attacks have become significantly more common as the game has evolved.
Attack Range
Lastly, let's take a look at the range characteristic of the attacks available to the various warbands.
Oh - there's the problem.
Prior to the release of S2, were a total of 13 base attacks in the game with range of greater than 1 hex; Thundrik's Profiteers have 12 on their own. Additionally, in S1, fully half of the available warbands had no attack with a range of greater than 1 - every warband in S2 has at least 2 attacks of range greater than 1. While this doesn't fully account for the competitive differences between S1 and S2 warbands, it does seem to be the most drastic difference between the two seasons, in terms of card characteristics. The introduction of Spell Cards, an improvement in the quality of gambits and upgrades, and the vagaries of the Banned and Restricted list also no doubt contribute to the imbalance between the Seasons, but the wide availability of long-range attacks in S2 definitely adds to the mix as well.
Summary
As GW begins the process of previewing S3 elements (and hones their sloth-like competitive balancing reflexes), we sincerely hope that the game continues to evolve and change. We here at Call it Shadespire would love to see a rotation that removes some or all of the S1 content from competitive play, we aren't holding our breath. Whatever S3 brings, we'll be there to share it with you.
As always, I absolutely love your articles (and the fact someone else does the math for me, meaning I can have statistically founded opinions! Yay!)
ReplyDeleteWay to comment on an ancient article, but I think there's one thing you gloss over that kind of matters: The difference between on-crit effects between S1 and S2. Where Season 1 has them sprinkled in all over the place, Season 2 has them exclusively on one warband; and a general philosophical shift from moving the effects to the straightforward, reliable versions. Season 1 might have similar amounts of specials, but they are more consistent in Season 2.